Women, especially Catholic women, may well be the key voting bloc to decide the 2024 presidential election between Donald J. Trump and Kamala Harris. That is the conclusion I have reached after analyzing in detail the results of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and comparing them to the developing trends since Harris entered the race.
Trump has a lock on the votes of white evangelical Christians. According to Pew Research and AP VoteCast, roughly 8 out of 10 white evangelicals voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020. I do not see that changing, In fact, Trump is increasing his lead among rural voters, many of whom are church going evangelicals.
To win in 2024, Trump needs to hold onto the Catholic vote he has enjoyed in the past two presidential elections. Edison exit polls show that Catholic support for Trump in 2016 was 50%, with 46% for Clinton. In 2020, the Catholic vote for Trump fell to 47%, with 52% supporting Biden. The shift toward Biden was due almost entirely to the support of Latin Catholics, particularly Latin women. White Catholic men, however, continued their majority support for Trump.
Those five percentage points in the Catholic vote gave the election to Biden.
Catholics constitute over one/fifth of the U.S. voting electorate and are a large percentage in such battleground states as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin which have been decisive for garnering the 270 electoral votes necessary to be elected president.
The white Catholic men, who gave Trump their majority support in the two previous elections, seem on track to do so again in 2024. The difference in 2024 Catholic vote will be primarily determined by Catholic women voters.
Historically, women vote in presidential elections in greater numbers than do men. According to Pew Research, the proportion of the eligible adult population who reported voting in the 2020 presidential election was 68.5 women and 65 men. In 2016, 63.3 women, 59.3 men.
The divisive issue of abortion, which has motivated many Catholic voters against Democratic candidates, has been somewhat attenuated by the Supreme Court appointments and by the overturning of Roe v. Wade. With the withdrawal of Biden, Harris now has a chance to present herself in her own right to all key constituencies – especially Catholics, especially Catholic women.
Handicapping the 2024 Presidential Election
Catholic support for Trump has deep roots. The traditional working-class Catholics have a legitimate anger against the failure of free-market economic globalism to protect and advance their interests in the U.S. economy. Their leaders rightly point to the loss of basic industrial capacity as both injurious to our economy and to our security.
Catholic women, and men, worry about public policy for the protection of human life and dignity relating to abortion, euthanasia, artificial reproductive technologies and gender ideology. They are also concerned about public policy on public education which threatens the viability of independent, private schools in the American polity.
Once again, the entrance of Harris into the presidential race is causing a mood change among women voters in general and Catholic women voters in particular. The Gender Gap between men and women voters is growing. Trump’s appeal to white men endures. He continues to gain ground with young white men. The nomination of Harris has, however, helped the Democrats to regain support from young women. It has also helped them to blunt some of Trump’s appeal to Latin and Black men who were disillusioned with Biden.
According to Catholics for Choice, recent polling suggests a backlash among Catholic voters against attempts by Catholic bishops and priests to tell them how to vote on reproductive and LGBTQ rights.
The selection of JD Vance as the Republican nominee for Vice President has not helped Trump gain support from men and has hurt his chances with women.
The latest New York Times/Siena College Polls show Harris “has made big gains among young, nonwhite and female voters, and made relatively few or no gains among older voters and white men.”
Prediction: Women voters, especially Catholic women voters, will decide the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
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Nick Patricca is professor emeritus at Loyola University Chicago, member of PEN San Miguel Mexico Chapter, president of Chicago Network for Justice and Peace.
2024 © [email protected]
Published in Windy City Times 22 August 2024
https://windycitytimes.com/2024/08/22/women-voters-especially-catholic-women-will-decide-the-2024-presidential-race/